May 5, 2025
Episode

The 2025 Live Music Draft

The 2025 Live Music Draft
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Today’s episode is our 2025 Live Music Draft! Tati Cirisano and I picked one live music event in each category. We prioritized commercial and cultural impact:

- 1 Stadium Tour
- 1 Music Festival
- 1 Arena Tour (first-timer)
- 1 Concert Residency
- 1 Tour to Exceed Expectations
- 1 Underperforming Tour

You can listen to the episode here or read below for one of the tours that was briefly mentioned, but I want to talk more about today: Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s Grand National Tour.

all the stars - stadium status

There’s been tons of discussion about hip-hop’s current “downturn.” Some of the critiques are warranted, but the context overlooks Kendrick Lamar’s tremendous run. We’re approaching the one-year anniversary of “Not Like Us,” the Grammy Award-winning Record of the Year and Song of the Year from the reigning Super Bowl Halftime Show performer, who turned down an opportunity to headline Coachella to headline his own stadium tour! This is a moment for the genre that should be recognized.

It reminds me of another genre-building shift when Jay-Z and Live Nation agreed on their 10-year, $150 million deal in 2008. It elevated hip-hop to a global touring product. Jay-Z, who was part of the 1999 Hard Knock Life Tour where promoters were nervous to showcase the first all-hip-hop arena tour in the U.S., was now headlining 2008 Glastonbury, scoffing at his haters like that ‘bloke from Oasis.’

It was quite the come-up. A come-up that helped set the stage for a hip-hop stadium tour like Kendrick Lamar and SZA's Grand National Tour, which is projected to gross over $300 million in ticket sales.

Technically, Kendrick and SZA are co-headliners, which Punch, SZA’s manager and TDE President, has reminded people about. Both The Big Steppers Tour and The SOS Tour were of similar stature. But since the tour is named after K.dot's latest album, and he does more solo songs than she does, it's more of a 1A / 1B situation. Like Shaq and Kobe on the early 2000s Los Angeles Lakers.

Even at hip-hop's commercial peak in its share of recorded revenue, the genre still paled in comparison to the touring revenue generated by legacy pop and rock acts. In 2022, hip-hop and R&B accounted for 27% of U.S. recorded music revenue yet just 11% of U.S. touring revenue. There are a number of reasons for that gap, hip-hop is a younger genre than rock and pop, institutional bias that has elevated white musicians and the genres they dominate, and the list goes on.

But Kendrick's tour feels like a glass ceiling that's broken. "We can sell out the same venues that you can" is the statement being made. The counter is that Drake could have done this years ago but chose not to for various reasons. He prefers relatively smaller venues despite the economic tradeoff. Yet it's poetic that Kendrick elevated to this status after "Not Like Us" – arguably the biggest diss track of all time that was all about Drake – cemented his cultural dominance in 2024.

Now that a ceiling is broken, I do hope that the narrative around these tours gets the same level of treatment as any other tour. The discourse around the empty seats at Beyonce's Cowboy Carter tour had a little too much zest for my liking. That's not to say that her touring decisions are beyond reproach, they are not! I called out the potential downside as well. But let's make sure that we're criticizing the right things and not pushing false narratives.

As CAA's Akin Aliu reminded me in last year's episode on The Art and Science of Behind Sold Out Shows. There's a delicate balance between ambition and practicality. Some agencies push artists to larger venues prematurely, which can damage long-term touring potential if shows undersell. The goal should be sustainable growth, not just bigger venues for the sake of it.

The sad truth is that TMZ, The Shade Room, Pop Crave, and similar outlets didn't care when Linkin Park just downgraded and discounted their tickets from Dodger Stadium to Intuit Dome. I'm also glad that Linkin Park didn't experience that! I commend the band for pushing on despite the death of lead singer Chester Bennington. But let a contemporary hip-hop, pop, or R&B act have a similar downgrade at a stadium level, the schadenfreude will be relentless.

In our latest episode, we dive deeper into the economics of other big live music events in 2025. Our life music draft was a ton of fun. I intentionally didn’t spoil it here but I recommend you check it out!

Listen here:​​ Spotify​​ | ​​Apple Podcasts​​ | Overcast

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I am a real estate investor and came across this podcast after a recommendation from a friend who shares my loves for both hip hop and business. Often, those two interests have such polar opposite “voices” - but Dan’s podcast brings those two together for me. The result is magical. Great guests, too!
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Hip-hop mirrors the business world in a lot of ways. While I’ve always thought and known that, it’s great to see those ideas brought to life by someone so knowledgeable about both of those things. Huge fan of Trapital.
PPLS CHAMP
Looking forward to future episodes of Trapital. I’ve been following the newsletters for awhile and always learn something new that’s relevant to hip hop and business. Great job getting the nuggets of info from Matthew Knowles on the 1st episode, can’t wait until the next one!
Cburns08
If you’re looking for a podcast with a wealth of info on the business of hip hop, then Trapital is your new home. Dan is an excellent host who has a myriad of of experienced guests to talk their role in the business of hip hop. Check it out!
RoyalSkegee
If you work in — or have an interest in — the music business, Trapital is a must.
Samu Rast
A good friend of mine put me on this podcast and it took me some time to tap in, but once I did, I couldn’t stop listening! Dan has a talent for pulling out the narratives between lines, connecting it to the culture and then making it make sense. I’m a loyal subscriber and am thankful for the podcast!
Zealous Advocate
I am a real estate investor and came across this podcast after a recommendation from a friend who shares my loves for both hip hop and business. Often, those two interests have such polar opposite “voices” - but Dan’s podcast brings those two together for me. The result is magical. Great guests, too!
Gabriel Blue
As a guy who came up in NYC during the late 90s / early 2000s rap scene, I appreciate the history revisited by Dan, who obviously has an authentic and unique perspective on the culture. But he’s not only a hip hop historian; he’s also a visionary of art, technology and culture who curates other trend setters from across the globe. Salute!
Mrkamal
I love Dan’s ability to bring diverse and timely perspectives to the show while asking deeply insightful questions that engage the audience on so many interesting levels. I’ve learned so much in just a short period of listening. Excited for what Dan has in store for the show in the future!
Greg0188
I stumbled upon this podcast by learning about Dan / Trapital via LinkedIn. I listen to A LOT of podcasts and I decided to give it a listen. First, Dan has a calm and authentic demeanor, which are great qualities. When he’s talking to his guests it’s very conversational and easy flowing. I’m a former music industry vet so the topics are right up my alley.
Phil Stolaronek
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