How Much is The Weeknd's Music Really Worth?

Last week, ​Bloomberg​ reported that The Weeknd hopes to secure a $1 billion financing deal using his share of his music as collateral. The talks are reportedly being led by Lyric Capital Group, which was reportedly presented a structure that includes $500 million of senior debt, $250 million in junior debt, and $250 million in equity.

I’ve seen several comparisons to Bowie Bonds, David Bowie’s 1997 vehicle to raise $55 million against his music royalties. It was an innovative move at the time but when the industry tumbled in the 2000s, the bonds were ​downgraded​ until they were paid off in full.

The Weeknd’s potential deal, let’s call it Starboy Securities for now, similarly comes at a high point for the music industry. But there are a few big questions.

What would he use the money for?

How much is his share of his music actually worth?

Some see him further developing his multi-hyphenate career in entertainment. This could fund a production company or similar Hollywood venture. The Weeknd has already dipped his toes into acting and producing. What’s next on his agenda?

According to ​Bloomberg​, The Weeknd tried to sell his music two years ago at a price tag of $1.3 billion. It’s hard to speak on a price tag music rights without knowing all the details, but I would be lying if I didn’t admit that the ten-figure price tag surprised me.

In Abel Tesfaye’s defense, here’s why his catalog is valuable:

• “Blinding Lights” is the most-streamed song ever on Spotify by a longshot with 4.9 billion streams. That’s nearly 500 million more than the #2 song, Ed Sheeran’s “Shape of You,” which has 4.5 billion. The Weeknd’s biggest hit has a Usain Bolt 2008 Beijing Olympics type of lead on the competition. It’s also Billboard’s #1 Hot 100 song of all time.
• That’s just one song. He has 27 others on Spotify with over 1 billion streams, which is ​more than any other artist​.
• In 2024, The Weeknd generated 13.27 billion streams on Spotify, second only to Taylor Swift. If Taylor’s 28.21 billion streams generated well over $100 million in royalties, it’s safe to conservatively estimate that The Weeknd’s generated in the $50 million range from Spotify.
• If we assume Spotify’s royalties account for roughly 20 to 25% of all music revenues according to its own Loud & Clear report, The Weeknd’s music could have generated in the $200 million range in 2024.
• The Weeknd can fill stadiums worldwide on tour. He’s only 35 years old and can continue to tour off that catalog for years to come.
• On Apple Music, “Blinding Lights” is the second-most streamed song. He has nine more of his songs are in the top 400.

If the Weeknd’s music generated around $200 million in total, that’s just one-fifth of the amount he wants to raise. But like most artists at his level, those music rights aren't solely owned by the artist!

Here are a few caveats:

• Those streams have several mouths to feed. Republic Records and Universal Music Group likely own a bigger share of his older music, and Chord Music Partners currently owns 50% of his publishing
• Plus, Max Martin, Daft Punk, Ariana Grande, and Playboi Carti are just a few names who have credits to some of his biggest hits.
• The Weeknd’s music may get a few billion more streams per year than someone like Michael Jackson’s music does today, but will that still be true in 10 or 20 years? The shelf life for streaming era pop music may be quicker than a lot of today’s superstars want to believe it is. We’re still learning how 2010s pop music will age.

If The Weeknd’s deal happens at the reported ten-figure price tag, it would be among the largest music financing deals ever for a single artist. Queen, Michael Jackson, The Weeknd. That’s the rarified air he’s in. But this is a very different asset to price given the younger age of the music.

The Weeknd’s music may generate hundreds of millions of dollars annually today, but again, how much of that does he take home and how long can it keep generating that level of income for years to come? I’ll stay tuned as I learn more.