Revisiting The Sphere

It's been a year since our deep dive on Sphere Entertainment. The episode is still one of my favorites, but there have been a few updates that are worth mentioning.

First, the artists in performance have moved beyond the jam bands and legacy rock acts. The Backstreet Boys have kicked off their residency, where ticket resale prices have doubled on StubHub after the opening weekend. For those keeping score, I did pick Backstreet Boys for my "overachiever" pick in our 2025 Live Music Draft episode. The fans showed out in all-white. There are 21 shows on the schedule. This could be a launching pad for another nationwide tour for the 30-year-old boy band.

The Sphere has also had more EDM shows, with Anyma, Chase & Status, and Kaskade, and country music with Kenny Chesney and Zac Brown Band. A hip-hop act seems inevitable.

As we discussed, we've also seen more sports, including the 2024 NHL Draft and UFC 306. UFC CEO Dana White called it a success, but says the league is less likely to return soon due to contractual ties to MGM venues. The venue continues to pursue other major sporting events, though the production costs remain substantial.

The biggest revenue stream for Sphere has been films. It's no longer just Darren Aronofsky's Postcard From Earth. The venue now has The Wizard of Oz starting in August, with From The Edge, an extreme sports documentary, coming in 2026. This model could work well for recent movies that have done well on IMAX, but there's a big budget hurdle.

It cost $80 million to convert The Wizard of Oz for the Sphere. That $80 million is nearly half of Interstellar's 2014 production budget. Any film chosen needs to cast a wide, four-quadrant net to work—perhaps a much wider net than the Letterboxd enthusiast, Christopher Nolan cinephiles that might gravitate to IMAX releases.

There's a lot to look forward to, but the Sphere's challenges remain. The revenue is quite event-dependent, which makes it lumpy. In Q1'24, Las Vegas was home to the Super Bowl and Postcard From Earth was still relatively new. In the absence of a mega-event and the newness of the film, quarterly revenue dipped 13% year-over-year in Q1'25. The same is true for corporate and private events, which can be lucrative but are similarly inconsistent.

The Sphere's model works best when Las Vegas can attract grand-scale events and its concert residencies create moments. But that sustainability depends on consistent programming that can justify the high operational costs. The film IP needs enough repeat business before it gets stale, and the venue needs multiple revenue streams hitting on all cylinders to be reliably profitable. And let’s be real, that’s a lot of “ifs” for the business model to work well.

The entertainment industry is full of culturally significant operations that aren't strong businesses. In fiscal year 2024, Sphere Entertainment generated $1.03 billion in revenue with $462.5 million in net losses. It's still early, but the verdict is still out on how James Dolan's Sphere Entertainment will become a self-sustaining company.

You should listen to our episode Revisiting The Sphere for a full breakdown on the business.

Listen here:​​ ​Spotify​​​ | ​​​Apple Podcasts​​​ | ​Overcast

Chartmetric Stat of the Week - Coldplay

Coldplay’s been in the news for obvious reasons. Many have wondered if it led to a lift in their music, but their Spotify monthly listeners remain in the 93 to 95 million range. Instead, the buzz has picked up on Wikipedia, where their page views have jumped from around 8,000 views daily before the Gillette Stadium show to over 57,000 on the second day after the incident. The curiosity is there, but Coldplay’s listenership is still roughly the same on Spotify.